bayesian reasoning

Note: Made available from original telugu version for English speakers

Bayesian reasoning - everyday   

A healthy lifestyle includes healthy thoughts and rational understanding of our world. In our day to day activies how 'reasonable' are our assertions and beliefs ?

Do we believe in things because they are to be believed?  What should be the foundation of our beliefs? How do we know our beliefs are grounded in reality and we are not delusional ?

Take this test :
Take any assertion that you firmly believe in
for example: "Ghosts are real" ,"My Friend has a spacecraft", "Earth is flat", "My God brought 1000 deadbodies alive from graves", "Aliens visited Bangalore"

All you need to answer yourself are these three simple questions Truthfully
Note: As no one is going know these answers you can be truthful to yourself!!

How frequent is this kind of assertion true in other cases ?

None Very little A Little I feel like it Very Strong Can't go wrong

How strong are the proofs (that you are aware of) for your assertion ?

None Very little A Little I feel like it Very Strong Can't go wrong

Suppose your assertion is wrong, how strong are the proofs (that you are aware of) for that opposing position?

None Very little A Little I feel like it Very Strong Can't go wrong

Are my beliefs Justified ?

It appears your reasoning is sound

The evidence suggests that your assertion is more likely to be true than false

There is not enough evidence to support your beliefs

You are more likely to be wrong with your assertion  

It is unlikely, given the evidence, that your beliefs are correct 

It appears that your beliefs are against the available evidence. !!

For Foundational information on Bayesian probability please go through How to Use Baye's theorem